An Open Letter to President Obama

Your Excellency,

I am pleased to introduce myself as an ardent admirer of your goodself, and am based out of New Delhi. This letter of mine has been prompted by the results of the just concluded US midterm elections.

Your message to us on our sixtieth Republic Day that “India has no better friend and partner than the people of the US” won you millions of hearts in our country. This was also been reported on the front page of The Times of India.

Your election as the forty fourth President of the US, was indeed a landmark in the history of not only the US, but in the history of the world as a whole.

Far from being yet another electoral victory in the various democracies around the world, your electoral success was yet another epitome of hope, meritocracy, and above all a changed mindset of my brothers and sisters of America, which overlooks the origins of a candidate, and instead lays prime emphasis on their core competencies, to deliver the nation from the various challenges confronting it.

This changed mindset which has originated in the US, shall ultimately find its echo and effect in other parts of the world as well, especially where the traditional mindsets dominated by caste, creed, religion, and color of skin, are still deeply ingrained into the body politic as well as every sphere of life. Needless to add, meritocracy is the obvious casualty in such parts of the world.

Your Excellency, perhaps the biggest challenge confronting the US and the world since the past two years, has been the economic crisis and its after effects, the roots of which lies in excessive and unchecked consumerism, propelled by equally reckless financial institutions, which in the zeal of attaining spectacular growth, market dominance, and reporting ambitious sales numbers, prompted some overzealous individuals and decision makers, to throw all caution to the winds. Of course, the innovative and creative advances in loan securitization and derivatives, had only added that proverbial fuel to the fire.

Since the past two years, a concerted and coordinated effort by major economies of the world led by the US, have managed to arrest the unprecedented liquidity crisis to a great extent. And certainly, more such efforts are expected in the short and medium term.

Despite the flood of money inundating various economies around the world, thanks to the benevolence of various governments to arrest the economic slowdown, and loss of jobs, which could be a political disaster for any politician or political party at the helm of affairs, what is being missed out is that, are we now laying the foundations for yet another catastrophe which could hit us hard, a few years down the line, when some of the leading economies of the world, would be grappling with spiraling inflationary pressures, jobless growth, and a steady erosion of the values of their respective currencies?

While there could be no two ways about the need to inject massive liquidity into the beleaguered financial systems today, to effectively meet the challenge on hand on a timely basis, yet it would be dangerous to lose the sight of prudence which ensures that for one, we are not repeating the past mistakes of unbridled consumption fuelled by easy money, and secondly for every dollar that is being released into the system today , at least half of it is being spent to improve the productive capacity of the economy with sufficient linkages to create sufficient jobs, and arrest the ever bloating fiscal deficits.

Unfortunately, I am constrained by my limited knowledge to give a detailed account on the specifics of such linkages. However, at a very elementary level, may I suggest that such linkages could be:

* reducing oil consumption by encouraging Research and Development of alternate fuels, which are both renewable and environment friendly,
* focussing on creating better infrastructure to facilitate the private sector to expand output and employment in the most cost effective manner, and
*most importantly, sponsoring the development of various environment friendly technologies which could have their own spinoff effects in the future.

In this context your $150 billion new energy agenda which aims to reduce the greenhouse gases by 80% by the year 2050, besides of course creating five million new jobs, is certainly in the right direction which would give the US a leadership position on facilitating the desired climate change in the world.

Apart from the technologies which could help tackling the challenge of global warming and reducing oil consumption etc, technologies to efficiently and effectively harness the rainwater could be an excellent investment for the future.

Today it is oil, and tomorrow it could be potable water, which could become a major source of foreign exchange earning for any country.

The second manifestation of the challenge before us, is to revisit the old school of thought, which necessitated sufficient checks and balances in any economy, with stringent punishments to deter any financial institution daring to throw all caution to the winds, and then causing unmitigated disaster, as was witnessed two years ago. A highly regulated capitalist society need not be an oxymoron, and today few would have the wisdom to contest this fact.

Your Excellency, to be honest , you are both unfortunate as well as fortunate to be elected to this most coveted office in the whole world, at this particular juncture. Unfortunate because of the immense challenges confronting you as the forty fourth President of the United States, and fortunate because hopefully, under your able guidance and with the coordinated and untiring efforts of your highly distinguished and able team members, things should only get better from now onwards.

However, given the roots behind the problems today, which is chiefly the fact that living beyond one’s means and lending beyond one’s means, had become a way of life encompassing not only an average US citizen, but also those iconic corporations which were once a cherished destination of many bright students of some of the leading business schools of the world.

This has to change, not only in the US , but perhaps across the economies in the world which are today engaged in a similar fire fighting exercise.

To all those who have reposed their hope, trust, and aspirations on you two years ago, perhaps you may consider the following message in strong and unequivocal terms:

“ We owe it not only to ourselves, owe to our future generations as well, not to repeat the mistakes which brought us to this stage in the history of our nation. We will change our mindsets, we will be an epitome of a nation worthy of being emulated across the globe. Not simply because of the fact that we are the most powerful, not simply because of our influence across the globe and beyond the globe in the universe, but simply because of the fact that we the people of the United States of America, know how to manage our lives and our economy better. The path is likely to be difficult, testing, and full of frustrations. But we will endure the same, for we know that a dream destination awaits all of us, at the end of this path. We will reach there.”

Your Excellency, while your forthcoming visit to India is being eagerly looked forward to by millions of my fellow countrymen including myself, I would also pray for all the success which you have hoped for, and would be really delighted at witnessing your re-election two years down the line.

Most Respectfully,

Navneet Dhawan

New Delhi

Investor Psychology - A New Perspective

Two headlines in a recent issue of a leading newspaper grabbed my attention:

a) Sensex up 485 points, at 32 month high at 20,688,

and right below it,

b) Investors pull out Rs. 12.8 K crores from equity mutual funds.

While the phenomenal upsurge in the Sensex under the first headline was attributed to foreign fund buying, backed by India’s strong global cues, the latter was attributed to retail investors.

A spokesperson of a mutual fund was quoted “ Most investors who wanted to redeem, have done it now since investments were made when Sensex was trading between 15000-21000 levels. So , investors are pulling out money from equities and allocating to monthly income plans, liquid funds, and bank deposits.”

While this decision by some of the retail investors, could be deemed prudent, given the fact that the brutal scars of the stockmarket meltdown just two years ago, is still fresh in the minds of many, yet this very action by some retail investors reveals a typical psychological aspect which governs such behaviours, and I would call it The Past Expectations Syndrome

The Past Expectations Syndrome essentially means that for some investors, the dramatic events in the recent past or those which are still fresh in one’s memory, have a significant influence over one’s actions. This is simply because one is so overwhelmed by some past occurance, due to its positive or negative fallouts of a significant nature especially over that individual, that he is compelled to believe in a possible repetition of the same, even though the circumstances which led to the earlier occurance have changed significantly ever since.

Thus, when the Sensex first reached an all time high of 20,000 plus in Jan 2008, the downward slide began steadily, only to touch the sub 8000 levels in October that year post the collapse of Lehman Brothers. At that time, some of the business journals were full of speculations regarding the lowermost levels at which Sensex could bottom out in the next few months, and the speculated levels ranged anything between 5000-6000.

What a contrast that was to the grand predictions of an all time high of 30,000 plus levels for Sensex in October 2008, which were going rounds in Jan that year !

While the past experiences have a very strong influence over one’s actions, especially where the experience in question is really unpleasant akin to the sharp meltdown of the stock markets in 2008, yet to extrapolate the same in the future can be highly erroneous, as the circumstances could have changed dramatically ever since.

Now coming to the actions by some retail investors to pull out of the equity markets at this juncture, it can be presumed that they are reasonably confident that the stock markets in India have peaked out at this juncture, and now the only direction going forward is southwards, akin to what happened two years ago.

It is assumed that most of such retail investors are rational, and intend to maximise their gains from the stockmarkets.

While the possible performance of the stockmarkets in India in the near to medium term can at best be a matter of an enlightened debate, with the votaries from both the schools of thought giving equally convincing arguments to support their claims, yet the actual outcome could amaze even the most die hard optimists or shock even the most diehard pessimists.

This is because of the various imperfections in the world community as a whole, some of which could have a deep impact on our stock markets positively or negatively, and which may not mirror the true fundamentals of our economy.

But yes, having said that, what some investors tend to forget is that our stockmarkets, have an uncanny knack of beating the previous highs by a significant margin every now and then. Thus, ceteris paribus, there is every reason to to believe that for a rational investor with a reasonable level risk appetite, it would pay to stay invested. And the greet the new heights scaled by our stockmarkets, as one of the lucky beneficiaries , rather than watch from the sidelines, and say “ How I wish I had stayed invested !”

To support my hypothesis, let me recall that in April 2006, the Sensex reached a level of 12000 plus, an all time high then, only to tumble down to 8000 plus levels just two months later. From then onwards it began consolidating and an upward journey, which peaked at 20,000 plus levels in Jan 2008.

Thus, some of those investors who had entered the markets in April 2006 , might have exited at the same levels subsequently, due to the impact of The Past Expectations Syndrome. Surely, they would have missed out benefitting from the new peak by a significant margin of 8000 points.

Now, going forward from here, will the Sensex do an encore, and peak out at significantly higher levels than 20,000 plus in the medium term?

I would not be surprised at all.

Ayodhya - Beyond the Verdict

The remarkable calm with which the Indian public at large, reacted to the much awaited verdict of the Allahabad High Court on the Barbri dispute, stands out as an unparalleled symbol of maturity, responsibility, and reason with which we the people of India have moved on since 1992.

The most dastardly act on Dec 6, 1992 perpetuated by some so called Ram bhakts and their patrons from some promiment political parties, shamed every right thinking Indian who had held his/her head high in the world community, while cherishing the foundations of secularism and religious tolerance on which our nation state is based.

The Nation awaited with bated breath as the verdict was about to be delivered, and this time the government took no chances where law and order was concerned. Needless to add, not only the government but the Nation as a whole heaved a sigh of relief when no untoward incident was reported from any part of the country.

The debates and opinions expressed by some of our fellow citizens on Televison , the stand taken by some political parties and religious groups, as well as the editorials of various leading dailies on the said verdict, proved it beyond doubt that the notwithstanding the beliefs and sentiments of millions of Hindus and Muslims over the 2.77 acres of disputed land at Ayodhya , the overall interests of our Nation were paramount and non negotiable.

Yes, the said verdict is subject to appeal in the Apex court, and let the constitutional process take its own course.

Over the years, so much of hatred has been generated over this complex issue, so many innocent lives lost in the mindless violence connected with it, and not to forget the political fortunes made by some through shrewd exploitation of the sentiments of Hindus over this dispute.

But then, considering the historical perspectives, facts on record, and beliefs connected with the same, how come no right thinking Hindu aggressively championed a possible amicable solution overall these years on the following lines ?

“ Ayodhya is one of the most sacred cities for Hindus. There is no doubt that the disputed site is revered by millions of Hindus as the birthplace of Lord Ram. We respect such belief. There has to be a Ram tmple at the disputed site. Nothing wrong in it.

But, if we indeed consider ourselves to be true devotees of Lord Ram, then isn’t it our duty to live upto His ideals as well ? Lest those who choose to forget, the welfare of His subjects was one such ideals for which Lord Ram is revered by millions of Hindus since times immemorial.

The demolition of the Babri mosque, which led to so many innocent deaths subsequently, was an act of grave sin against His ideals, and Lord Ram will never forgive those who committed this sin and that too on His birthplace.

We will build a temple dedicated to Lord Ram on the disputed site, but as His true devotees, side by side we will also ensure the construction of a mosque, and as a major step to ensure he welfare of the residents of Ayodya and adjoing places, we will also ensure the contruction of a medical instttute or a hospital in the adjoining area, which would offer free treatment to the poor and needy cutting across religious and caste lines.

In these efforts of ours, we would seek the cooperation and assistance of our Muslim bretheren.

Certainly, this would be a unique offering by we Hindus to Lord Ram and His ideals”

Remarkably enough today, post the verdict, there is still a debate raging on regarding the necessity of a negotiated settlement on this dispute.

Let Hindus come forward on a proactive basis, mould the opiniion of millions of devotees of Lord Ram on the above lines, and maganimously agree to share half of the disputed 2.77 acres of land with our Muslim bretheren, on which a mosque could be built.

Yes, the government on its part could release a part of the 70 acres of acquired land adjoining the disputed site under its posssesion , to be used only for a hospital or a premier medical institute.

All the three structures – viz the Ram temple, the mosque, and the hospital or the medical institute be constructed jointly by both Hindus and Muslims. Funds would be the last thing to worry about for this unique symbol exemplifying one of the main ideals for which Lord Ram is revered by millions around the world.

But the million dollar question is – which true devotee of Lord Ram would be willing to champion this idea, and make the birthplace of Lord Ram a unique symbol of His ideals, and not merely another place of worship among countless of others around the world ?

The Nation awaits such a true devotee of Lord Ram.

Best and Worst of Times

It has been the best of times, and it has been the worst of times as well.

The rain gods have been overgenerous for most parts of North India, with Delhi recording the highest rainfall in the past 32 years, and hopes are high for a bountiful Kharif crop this season and the forthcoming as well. Hopefully, this should provide us with the much needed relief from the soaring food inflation which has risen to almost 15%.

Sensex crossed the 20,000 mark much ahead of the predictions by the anlysts and veterans of the Dalal Street, driven chiefly by the superb confidence exhibited by the FIIs who have literally flooded our bourses with funds. GDP growth for the current financial year is expectef to touch 8.5 %, and no one really seems to challenge the belief that the Indian econmy is among the best performing in the emerging markets.

The much delayed but welcome visit of the All Party Delegation to Kashmir, toengaage with a wide section of opinion, and subsequent intitiaves like the eight point plan, in order to enable the return to normalcy has rekindled some hopes in the country, notwithstanding the serious reservations against the competence of the Omar Abdullah government to deliver the right governance in the state.

On the flip side, the disastrous state of affairs in the run up to CWG, alongwith the allegations of corruption of unimaginable magnitude, have left most of the self respecting Indians redfaced. The concerns and apprehensions expressed by the envoys of some commonwealth countries, and some high profile sports persons pulling out of the games only further dented our image in the eyes of the world community.

That the Prime Minister himself had to finally intervene, to salvage the situation speaks volumes of the overall competence and capabilities of the key members of the organizing committee, the bosses at the Sports Ministry, and the various agencies involved.

The extent of cynicism and disgust over such sate of affairs can be gauged by the media coverages, cartoons in leading dailies, and the scorn with which some citizens are discussing the games.

What contrast to the general excitement and enthusiasm which prevailled during the run up to the Asiad 82! Sigh, that today we are deprived of a leader like Mrs. Indira Gandhi who took personal interest in the preparations of Asiad 82 since day one, and as some newspaper reports suggest, she was ably assisted by Rajiv Gandhi.

While cynicism has overpowered reason, and pessimism has overpowered optimism among most opf us today, where our character, credibility, accountability, and commitment are concerned, yet I for one would dare to kindle a ray of hope in the midst of this fierce darkness which has engulfed all of us today.

Notwithstanding this fiasco, there is every reason to be confident that ultimately we would pull it off, and all the naysayers like Moody’s who have opined that “Concerns regarding safety, security, and site preparedness ate tarnishing the country’s global image. India’s reputation as a tourist and investment destination could be damaged” would be compelled to reverse their perceptions very soon.

Yet, let this be a wake up call for each one of us, and most importantly for those at the helm of our affairs including our political leadership at the Centre and the States.
All of us love our democratic rights and individual freedoms. But then how many of us are willing to fulfill our duties diligently and devotedly, and are ready to be held accountable for our acts of omission and commission ?

Perhaps, no one else than Ms. Indira Gandhi realized this bitter truth.

A Salute to Our Security Forces

Our security forces engaged in antinaxal operations deserve a salute from each one of us. Having caught in a hopeless situation, from opportunistic political leadership, which for their electoral gains would go soft on naxals at one point of time, and then plead helplessness in public when some of our security personnel are held as hostages by these ruthless and barbaric elements, to their incompetent bosses on the other, who refuse to learn from past blunders while planning out the anti naxal operations. And above all, an indecisive central leadership which takes refuge on 'limited mandate', while spelling out the strategy to deal with such ruthless and barbaric elements.

This poem has been dedicated to all such security personnel, who despite all odds sacrifice their lives during the course of their duties, leaving their loved ones in grief forever.

Main suraksha bal ka ek jawaan,
Karne chala tha hoi kaam mahaan.

Desh bhakti ki bhawna mujhmein bachpan mein hi jaagi thi,
Aur iss pak vardi ko pahnne ki mujhmein woh junoon jaagi thi.

Apne maa baap ka iklauta laadla tha,
Jise unhone bade laad pyaar se paala tha.

Aur main surakha bal ka ek jawaan,
Karne chala ha hoi kaam mahaan.

Watan ke inn tamaam dushmanon se mujhe sakht nafrat thi,
Inn sab ka safaaya karke hi rahoonga,
Iss irade' ki maine zurrat ki.

Jawaan hokar maine yeh pak vaardi pehni,
Aur bandook utha kar apni farz pehchani.

Main suraksha bal ka ek jawaan,
Karne chala tha koi kaam mahaan.

Bhej daala mere afsaron ne mujhe,
Maovaadiyon ke kisi ilaake mein,

Woh ghane' jungle, saanp, bichu, aur kai jungli jaanwaron ke ilaake mein.
Par maine apne uss iraade ko phir buland kiya,
Yeh maovaadi ab bach nahi sakenge'
Yeh maine ab maan hi liya.

Main suraksha bal ka ek jawaan,
Karne chal tha koi kaam mahaan.

Hukm milne par chal pada kisi mission par,
Kaha gaya tha sab theek hai iss rah par.

Magar kuch pal baad,
Ek a ek, naa jaane kitni dhamaake huye,
Aur goliyon ki naa jaane kitni baucharein huyi.

Dekhte hi dekhte mere kai saathi shaheed ho gaye,
Kaiyon ki kitni bereham maut huyi.

Main tha buri tarah zakhmee lahu luhaan,
Suraksha bal ka ek jawaan.

Naseeb huyi shaheedi mujhe bhi magar kuch pal baad,
Woh khaufnaak dard,
Aur maut ko bhi sharminda kar dene waali cheekhon baad.

Main suraksha bal ka ek jawaan,
Karne chala tha koi kaam mahaan.

Aakhir shaamil ho hi gaya main un anginat shaheedon mein,
Kitni aasani se bhula diya mujhe, mere iss watan ne.

Chorh diya kitni berehmi se,
Maine apne maa baap ko besahara,
Iss dard bhari zindagi mein.

Mujhe apni iss kurbaani ka koi gam nahi,
Kyonki suraksha bal ka mein ek jawaan,
Karne chala tha koi kaam mahaan.

Magar kaash! Apni iss kurbaani ki huch toh keemat hoti,
Heere moti naa sahi,
Mere inn besahara maa baap ki auron mein kuch toh chaahat hoti.

Aur kyon nahi,
Aakhir tha main suraksha bal ka ek jawaan,
Jo karne chala tha koi kaam mahaan.

A Poem For My Daughter

On 29th August, my daughter Sumira turned fourteen. I gifted her this poem. Thought of sharing it with all or you as well. Best Wishes

Hey, Its your BIRTHDAY,
And you have turned FOURTEEN today!

Wow! Looks like yesterday when you were born,
As if it were just like a few moments,
All these years which have just gone !

You were named SUMIRA by all of us,
But we called you GULLO, BEBOO, and PUTTS without any fuss.

I still remember you in the cradle and pram,
Your smiles, movements, and your antics,
Which made all of us go cheese and ham.

We just couldn't realize how fast you grew up,
When suddenly today while we woke up,
To find you turn FOURTEEN!!

Oh! What a ferari this time has been,
You turned from a BABY to a TEENAGER,
As we have seen.

Tomorrow would be another day,
Perhaps which may come soon,
And without much delay.

When you would turn into a DYNAMIC and a RESPONSIBLE young lady,
And tell me on my face:
" You need to be more responsible Daddy".

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!

From - Dad

Jammu and Kashmir - Immediate Steps Required

The happenings in the Kashmir valley since the past two months have shocked the entire nation, besides having taken even die hard separatists in the valley by surprize. The ‘stone’ has become a visible symbol of the deep hatred of the ordinary Kashmiri against the Indian state, besides symbolizing the extent of their alienation from the Indian state.

The situation is indeed alarming and we do not have any more time to lose. The Centre should immediately :

• Sack the Omar Abdullah government right away and dissolve the assembly thereby paving way for Governor’s rule,

• Appoint someone with impeccable credentials as the new Governor of the state. Someone who can command respect and trust among common citizens, someone who is an able administrator and can easily reach out to the people. A personality like Mrs. Kiran Bedi can easily fit the bill,

• Appoint someone like Mr. K.P.S. Gill as an advisor to the Governor, to keep a strict vigil on the trouble creators and agents from across the LoC who are out to create mayhem in the state,

• Take bold steps to address the genuine grievances of the citizens, especially where their security and livelihood related opportunities are concerned,

• Overhaul the entire bureaucracy and administration to become responsive to the needs of the common citizens, and

• Gradually and steadily, let the Army and the CRPF be relegated to the background, and instead let J&K Police handle the law and order situation.

All this could be a Herculean task, but then so is the nature of the challenge.

As democratically elected governments of the state, voted in power in the past few years, through free and fair elections have failed to live upto the expectations of the citizens, let us not be in a hurry to conduct another elections for the state assembly. It would be much better if the new Governor is allowed to deliver right governance to the state, besides restoring the much needed respect and confidence in the minds of Kashmiri citizens towards the nation.

The process of getting elected representatives to power should ideally begin with the local bodies which need to be strengthened, before the elections to the state assembly are held.

Yes, the Centre can be open to resume dialogue with all shades of opinion in the valley, but unless and until the overall administration in the state is not overhauled to become responsive to the needs of common citizens of the state thereby gaining their trust and confidence, such dialogues would serve little purpose.