Imran Khan's Intentions

Imran Khan's intentions are fine indeed where Indo-Pak relations are concerned, and as it is believed that he has the backing of Pakistan Army, we can draw some comfort that our bilateral relations can see much needed improvement.

Not too long ago, General Bajwa too echoed similar sentiments where our relations are concerned.

But, if history is any guide, then while we can remain optimistic but without letting our guard down.

The Simla Agreement of 1972 can serve as a reference point. That no one in Pakistan even mentions about it today, should say it all. Why can't Imran Khan make a mention about it boldly?

Then, can't forget the over-optimism created in the media when our then PM Rajiv Gandhi visited Islamabad for SAARC summit in 1988, and was welcomed by his counterpart PM Benazir Bhutto. Their youth and charm created so much of hype out here, that it appeared "no-brainer" that all was great with our bilateral relations. That a year later, terrorism raised its ugly head in Kashmir with able backing from Pakistan was a rude jolt for us.

Other rude jolts were to follow :

* the famed bus ride by our then PM Vajpayee in February 1999 was followed by Kargil war,

* the hijack of IC 814 in December 1999 saw the release of Maulana Masood Azhar who was granted shelter in Pakistan,

* the over-hyped Agra summit in July 2001 was followed by an attack on our Parliament in December that year,

* Impromptu visit by PM Modi to Islamabad was followed by Pathankot terror attack etc etc

Above all, no one knows if the perpetrators of Mumbai attacks would ever be brought to justice.

In a nutshell, our approach vis-a-vis Imran Khan's government (assuming he is sworn in as PM) should be one of cautious optimism, without letting our guard down, or once again engulfing ourselves in "smoke screens" created by our own illusions.

New Disruptions by Reliance Industries

Reliance Industries Ltd's 41st Annual General Meeting, has put not only the telecom, but also e-commerce, and home entertainment players on notice.

While the likes of Airtel, Vodafone, Amazon, Walmart-Flipkart, Netfix, and other smaller players in such segments are likely to up the game with aggressive strategies to further consolidate their respective positions, the key strategy for RIL would be to get the first mover advantage in 5G connectivity, besides fixed broadband fibre connectivity to reach millions of households, not only in metros but in tier 2, 3, and 4 cities as well.

The state-of-the-art IT infrastructure with focus on data analytics, artificial intelligence, supply chain management systems, and customer relationship management systems are the critical minimum requirements, as RIL transitions from a mainly B2B entity to a B2C entity.

Further, the transition from an oil and gas behemoth to a telecom and e-commerce conglomerate is going to be big challenge for the third generation Ambanis, who will need to change the culture at RIL to meet the aspirations of the bright talent needed to spearhead such a massive transition, which would be the key to such a transition.

Now, the million dollar question is, "How long can the Walmart-Flipkarts and Amazons keep bleeding themselves just to keep their market shares?"

While RIL is a public listed company, is sensitive to the expectations of its shareholders, and norms of corporate governance, the e-commerce biggies are not so transparent in their financial disclosures as of now.

And finally, it has set its sight on education, healthcare, and education as well, courtesy 5G related technologies. What's left for others?

ICICI Bank-Videocon Controversy

If ICICI Bank was just part of a Rs 40,000 crore loan extended to Videocon by a consortium of 20 banks, then why is the focus just on ICICI Bank? Was it the lead bank in the consortium, and was Ms. Kochchar the key decision maker on behalf of ICICI Bank where this decision was concerned?

While the jury is still out, as to whether or not there was a conflict of interest while extending loans to Videocon group is concerned, one wonders if a key business practice adopted by various banks, that is of strong relationship management with most of their important customers would now stand compromised, lest any such account turn NPA later on and fingers be pointed even in bonafide cases?

Facebook-Cambridge Analytica Controversy

Last year, i bumped into an old acquaintance of mine, who is one of the renowned ENT specialists in New Delhi. After exchanging pleasantries with him, I asked for his visiting card, just in case I needed to consult him in future.

Very proudly he said, "Oh just google my name and you will get all my contact details.". I was impressed no doubt.

But today, when I read about the Facebook and Cambridge Analytica controversy, where the key issue is unauthorized access of Facebook user data by latter, I wonder if they deserve all such flak? Yes, no doubt unauthorized access of anyone's profile/contact details to serve political or commercial interests is ethically wrong, but then hasn't it been happening since ages, long before the advent of social media?

Let me be candid. How many of us on Facebook or any other social media site, have friends/contacts whom we have never met, and how many of us get a thrill from likes/appreciations to our pics and posts from such unknown friends/contacts?

Indo-Pak Relations

As per today's newspaper, Pakistani Envoy to India, who has been reportedly summoned by his government for consultations over the alleged inappropriate conduct by our agencies here, may not return soon.

Surely, if the newspapers reports are to be believed, our diplomats too have similar complaints with their Pakistani hosts, including the denial of membership to our High Commissioner at the prestigious Islamabad Club.

Well, the bilateral ties between India and Pakistan have been strained since the past seven decades, notwithstanding brief spells of 'monsoon showers' in between. And any expectation of a durable detente in our bilateral ties as of now seem nothing short of a wishful thinking.

But, the least we can do is to ensure is to observe all international norms with regard to treatment of their envoys, insisting on a full quid-pro-quo from Pakistan.

I am really amazed to hear stories from those who have visited Pakistan, with regard to the love and affections showered on them by Pakistani citizens. Especially, if they come to know that the ancestors of those visiting Indians hailed from Pakistan.

We Indians too reciprocate such gestures, especially to visiting Pakistani sportsmen and artists.

Then, why such bitterness at the other levels?

Scam involving Letters of Undertaking

Some key questions that come to my mind regarding the latest scam are:

a) What are the guidelines defined in our banking system before Letters of Undertaking (LoUs) are issued in favour of some clients? As these guarantee liability payments by one bank to another, isn't creditworthiness besides impeccable business credentials of their favored clients supposed be the topmost criteria?

b) As PNB's SWIFT system wasn't 'married' to their core banking system, was this not known either to the RBI or the powers that be at PNB since ages? Or did it come as news when this scam unfolded?

c) As Nirav Modi's firm managed to get LoUs issued without any margins for whatever reasons, how can he be accused for fraud, unless it is proved that he made fraudulent representations to avail of the same?

d) The ex-PNB staffer who is making news should be the one on the dock for using SWIFT system as his personal email id. The least that could have in put in place by RBI was to have two key authorities of the bank from different departments to authenticate such messages, so as to at least eliminate the possibility of one authority being compromised to the detriment of bank's interests.

e) As the beneficiary of LoUs would have been Modi's business partners, it is going to be an herculean task for our investigators to nail Modi guilty of any crime unless they conduct a forensic audit of the amounts released on the basis of such LoUs to identify its trail of movement,

f) And above all, it is indeed mysterious that how come not even the RBI considered it prudent to conduct forensic audits of such instruments like LoUs and SWIFT systems as a precautionary measure, to ensure that there was no compromise on the interests of the banks concerned?

Perhaps, this incident should serve as a wake-up call for our entire banking system, and lets hope and pray that is the last of such scams.

Crisis in Maldives

Two statements from China with regard to crisis in Maldives:

a) It is an internal matter and there should be no external intervention, and

b) We do not want another Doklam like situation with India.
Should put our concerns at rest with regard to the Chinese intentions in that island nation. Besides, China has also turned down a request from the Maldivian government to land its military boots in Maldives to secure its interests, stating that Maldives can secure itself.

But, parallels are being drawn with Operation Cactus, executed by India in 1988, to liberate Maldives from some mercenaries who were perhaps financed by some Maldivian national. This operation was carried out as per the request of then Maldivian President Gayoom, while in the current scenario is the Maldivian opposition which is requesting for military intervention by India.

Here, it is pertinent to recall the disaster which confronted the IPKF in Sri Lanka, which was originally tasked with ensuring peace between the Sri Lankan military and the LTTE cadres, but soon got engulfed in a situation which it was least prepared for.

Right now, even though we have erroneously refused to entertain the special Maldivian envoy, quoting reasons such as time constraint etc, we need to be in constant touch with the Maldivian Ambassador in New Delhi, and be clear on our expectations from their current President, as well as the options at our disposal should any off those options be required to be availed. Yes, our leadership has done the right thing by taking the US as well as Saudi Arabia on board vis a is Maldives, and as per the newspaper reports we are in touch with the Chinese as well on this issue.

But, it would have been reassuring if the Chinese leadership would have emphasized to the Maldivian President to restore democracy and will of the people, to prevent any civil war kind of scenario. That such as statement is yet to come from the Chinese is a matter of concern, notwithstanding that they themselves are yet to demonstrate their commitment to such principles.

Till then, its wait and watch, and hope that the will of people of Maldives reigns supreme, without having to land even a single foreign soldier and without having to fire even a single bullet