Kartarpur Corridor event at Pakistan

In diplomacy, optics play a key role in forming overall perceptions of the intended audiences. And where optics are concerned, the historic Kartarpur Corridor event at Pakistan, was nothing short of a disaster.

No doubt Navjot Sidhu shares a good personal rapport with Prime Minister Imran Khan, and no one should have an issue if he wishes to take some credit for this historic event. But then, when our Union Cabinet had appointed two of our Union Ministers to grace the occasion, due importance should have been given to them. Imran Khan should have reserved his niceties for Sidhu to a low key, as he was on a private visit.

Secondly, let us not forget that this event was close on heels to the 10th anniversary of Mumbai attacks, and the perpetrators of such heinous attacks are yet to be brought to justice in Pakistan. How could an aide of one of the masterminds - Hafiz Saeed, was allowed to make an appearance and shake hands with Gen Bajwa? This optic has its obvious conclusions.

There is no point issuing such statements like, "If India takes one step forward to improve bilateral ties, Pakistan will take two", when actions and words in such an event were in stark contrast.

And at the very least, Sidhu should have politely countered his friend Imran Khan, that neither was he keen to contest elections in Pakistan nor was he aspiring to be our next Prime Minister right now. The fact that he did not do so, clearly puts a question mark on his intentions.

Going forward, let us remain optimistic about Prime Minister Khan being able to deliver on his intentions to mend fences with us. But at the same time, we also need to remain on high alert all the time to guard against any nasty surprises, as has happened in the past.

Finally, if by appointing Sidhu as our goodwill ambassador to Pakistan can make all the difference, then so be it.

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RBI and Finance Ministry

If the RBI's mandate is to ensure monetary stability, and Finance Ministry's mandate is to ensure fiscal stability, then can the monetary and fiscal stability co-exist without RBI and the Finance Ministry going hand-in- hand? Typical example, under normal circumstances, high taxes and less government spending should lead to lower interest rates to ensure the overall economic growth does not suffer.

Yes, there may be healthy differences between the two depending upon overall situation prevailing in the financial system as a whole. But at the end of the day, the Hon'ble Finance Minister is an elected representative of the people of India, and is answerable to our Parliament.

Thus, the top leadership of the RBI needs to be sensitive about the concerns expressed by the Hon'ble Finance Minister, and work out amicable solution/s to address the same.

High Oil Prices and Weakening Rupee- Options for India

The continuing mayhem in our stock markets, mainly due to sanctions on Iran by the US, resulting in higher crude prices and weakening rupee, needs to be viewed from the prism of wider geo-political implications. That this mayhem does not mirror the strong fundamentals of Indian economy at present is beyond doubt.

That higher crude prices driven by OPEC is not in the interest of even the US, is reflected by the following tweet from President Trump in April this year:

"Looks like OPEC is at it again. With record amounts of Oil all over the place, including the fully loaded ships at sea. Oil prices are artificially Very High! No good and will not be accepted!”

While abrogating the nuclear deal with Iran, as negotiated by his predecessor, President Trump made it clear that he was open to another such deal with Iran which according to him was just and fair.

Now, an opportunity for India in this crisis. We should:

a) Form a grouping of major oil importing countries as a counter to OPEC. The key objective of this grouping should include - setting an upper band of crude oil for OPEC, actively supporting each other to reduce dependence on oil imports from OPEC, and aggressively working on increasing the usage of alternative fuels and and associated technologies, besides assisting each other in oil exploration projects. Such a grouping is likely to have its impact on OPEC, by reducing their scope of maneuverability in raising oil prices. If nothing else, it is at least likely to bring differences of opinion in OPEC which is not a monolithic entity, and

b) Having good relations with both US and Iran, we should work aggressively on back channel diplomacy with both, to arrive at a win-win nuclear deal, which will assuage the concerns of Trump administration on the deal entered by Obama administration. Yes, this may mean tweaking some clauses of that agreement over which Trump administration has concerns. This would necessitate some quid-pro-quo by the US as well, but that would be in the its interests as well, if unlimited transfer of incomes from major oil importing countries including the US, to OPEC via reduced oil production and high oil prices has to be kept under check.

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Imran Khan's Intentions

Imran Khan's intentions are fine indeed where Indo-Pak relations are concerned, and as it is believed that he has the backing of Pakistan Army, we can draw some comfort that our bilateral relations can see much needed improvement.

Not too long ago, General Bajwa too echoed similar sentiments where our relations are concerned.

But, if history is any guide, then while we can remain optimistic but without letting our guard down.

The Simla Agreement of 1972 can serve as a reference point. That no one in Pakistan even mentions about it today, should say it all. Why can't Imran Khan make a mention about it boldly?

Then, can't forget the over-optimism created in the media when our then PM Rajiv Gandhi visited Islamabad for SAARC summit in 1988, and was welcomed by his counterpart PM Benazir Bhutto. Their youth and charm created so much of hype out here, that it appeared "no-brainer" that all was great with our bilateral relations. That a year later, terrorism raised its ugly head in Kashmir with able backing from Pakistan was a rude jolt for us.

Other rude jolts were to follow :

* the famed bus ride by our then PM Vajpayee in February 1999 was followed by Kargil war,

* the hijack of IC 814 in December 1999 saw the release of Maulana Masood Azhar who was granted shelter in Pakistan,

* the over-hyped Agra summit in July 2001 was followed by an attack on our Parliament in December that year,

* Impromptu visit by PM Modi to Islamabad was followed by Pathankot terror attack etc etc

Above all, no one knows if the perpetrators of Mumbai attacks would ever be brought to justice.

In a nutshell, our approach vis-a-vis Imran Khan's government (assuming he is sworn in as PM) should be one of cautious optimism, without letting our guard down, or once again engulfing ourselves in "smoke screens" created by our own illusions.

New Disruptions by Reliance Industries

Reliance Industries Ltd's 41st Annual General Meeting, has put not only the telecom, but also e-commerce, and home entertainment players on notice.

While the likes of Airtel, Vodafone, Amazon, Walmart-Flipkart, Netfix, and other smaller players in such segments are likely to up the game with aggressive strategies to further consolidate their respective positions, the key strategy for RIL would be to get the first mover advantage in 5G connectivity, besides fixed broadband fibre connectivity to reach millions of households, not only in metros but in tier 2, 3, and 4 cities as well.

The state-of-the-art IT infrastructure with focus on data analytics, artificial intelligence, supply chain management systems, and customer relationship management systems are the critical minimum requirements, as RIL transitions from a mainly B2B entity to a B2C entity.

Further, the transition from an oil and gas behemoth to a telecom and e-commerce conglomerate is going to be big challenge for the third generation Ambanis, who will need to change the culture at RIL to meet the aspirations of the bright talent needed to spearhead such a massive transition, which would be the key to such a transition.

Now, the million dollar question is, "How long can the Walmart-Flipkarts and Amazons keep bleeding themselves just to keep their market shares?"

While RIL is a public listed company, is sensitive to the expectations of its shareholders, and norms of corporate governance, the e-commerce biggies are not so transparent in their financial disclosures as of now.

And finally, it has set its sight on education, healthcare, and education as well, courtesy 5G related technologies. What's left for others?

ICICI Bank-Videocon Controversy

If ICICI Bank was just part of a Rs 40,000 crore loan extended to Videocon by a consortium of 20 banks, then why is the focus just on ICICI Bank? Was it the lead bank in the consortium, and was Ms. Kochchar the key decision maker on behalf of ICICI Bank where this decision was concerned?

While the jury is still out, as to whether or not there was a conflict of interest while extending loans to Videocon group is concerned, one wonders if a key business practice adopted by various banks, that is of strong relationship management with most of their important customers would now stand compromised, lest any such account turn NPA later on and fingers be pointed even in bonafide cases?

Facebook-Cambridge Analytica Controversy

Last year, i bumped into an old acquaintance of mine, who is one of the renowned ENT specialists in New Delhi. After exchanging pleasantries with him, I asked for his visiting card, just in case I needed to consult him in future.

Very proudly he said, "Oh just google my name and you will get all my contact details.". I was impressed no doubt.

But today, when I read about the Facebook and Cambridge Analytica controversy, where the key issue is unauthorized access of Facebook user data by latter, I wonder if they deserve all such flak? Yes, no doubt unauthorized access of anyone's profile/contact details to serve political or commercial interests is ethically wrong, but then hasn't it been happening since ages, long before the advent of social media?

Let me be candid. How many of us on Facebook or any other social media site, have friends/contacts whom we have never met, and how many of us get a thrill from likes/appreciations to our pics and posts from such unknown friends/contacts?