Tuesday, January 12, 2016

GDP Growth of eight per cent when exports are down by five percent

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It was a real treat to watch Ruchir Sharma's interview yesterday on NDTV 24x7, which was moderated by Dr. Prannoy Roy. He made a brillant analysis of the top 10 economic trends in the world economy during the last year, and his prognosis for this year, which unfortunately was not too encouraging.
One of thew key prognosis made by Ruchir was - if our exports have shown a decline of 5% in the last year, how can we expect our overall GDP to grow by 8%?
Point well taken. But the answer lies in agrarian reforms, and specifically aggressive push to the farm-to-fork policy, whereby the farmers are encouraged to sell directly to the ultimate consumers through well established mechanisms, thereby ensuring better remuneration for themselves and lower prices for the final consumers.
It does not need too much of an imagination that, while the overall food inflation would see a marked decline, the overall food production would also get a boost, thanks to the market driven incentives for the farmers, who would not have to rely on the government sponsored minimum support prices, to determine their cropping patterns.
In the ultimate analysis, we should aim to become the food basket for the world, which would be a key catalyst in our overall growth story.
Of course, this simple synopsis of the suggested remedy to Ruchir Sharma's malady, requires among other mechanisms, bold political initiatives of wiping out the intermediaries, who are neither serving the interests of the farmers nor of the final consumers.