Given the severe hit which even the OPEC economies had to suffer last year due to pandemic related restrictions worldwide, which saw the crude prices plunge to negative territory, it would be unrealistic to expect them to pay heed to our request to beef up the supplies to keep the crude prices in check ,so as to serve ours as well the interests of other major importers of crude oil.
It's but natural that OPEC countries too are now trying to recoup their losses, given the fact that their respective economies too have suffered. Given such a situation, it's now anyone's guess that the international price of crude oil would cross $100 per barrel by December when it's demand peaks.
That the ever increasing retail prices of petrol and diesel can have major negative impact on our economic revival, is certainly not lost on our policy-makers. And, at this rate given the limitations of our government because of which a cut in taxes on the same is currently being ruled out, the retail prices of petrol and diesel by the year end is anyone's guess.
Some options worth considering are:
a) Issuing oil bonds or revisiting our fiscal deficit targets to defer the costs of increasing oil prices for another few years ,when it is expected that our economy would be back on its' all-inclusive growth trajectory. But simultaneously, keep up with reforms in various sectors, and keeping all key domestic and international constituencies well-informed consistently, on our plans to ensure macro-economic stability while pursuing our 'growth without pain' strategy,
b) Try working out a quid-pro-quo relationships with each member of OPEC for mutual assistance in our common overall economic objectives. It is well known that OPEC is not a monolithic entity, and each member has its own priorities and compulsion. A rupee trade or a barter deal involving oil imports from them and access to our technology and market could be a key element,
c) Actively working with some European nations and China to ensure the revival of US-Iran nuclear deal, thereby leading to lifting of all sanctions against Iran. This would force OPEC to boost oil supply thereby leading to softening of oil prices,
d) On a parallel note, working out more reliance on Iran as a trusted supplier of energy, and on a quid-pro-quo basis to address its needs post pandemic, and
e) Other measures such as thrust on non-conventional energy sources etc, need to be kept on track with as many international alliances as possible, especially given the urgent need to combat the threats of climate change confronting the planet as a whole. But, these would take their own time to yield dividends.
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